Odloženi izbori u Velikom Trnovcu – finansijske posledice
Odlaganje završetka izbora ima i imaće neposredne finansijske efekte za partije. Dodatno, već sada je imalo za posledicu da transparentnost finansiranja kampanje za izbore 2022. bude manja nego u slučaju svih kampanja u prethodnih deset godina.
Odlukom Upravnog suda o ponavljanju izbora u Velikom Trnovcu kod Bujanovca, Koalicija Albanaca doline dobila je četvrtu priliku da dosegne do broja glasova koji je potreban za ulazak u parlament, a koji joj je 3. aprila izmakao uglavnom zbog toga što su njihovi konkurenti unutar istog biračkog tela dobili oko jedne četvrtine glasova Albanaca. Odlaganje proglašenja rezultata izbora, početka rada novog saziva Skupštine i Vlade očigledno ide na ruku Vučiću koji vaga s kim će i kada će SNS da formira vladu i da li će i kada će da donese mere usaglašavanja spoljne politike sa EU, jer ima savršeno formalno pokriće za odlaganje tih odluka. Predstavnici opozicije koja nikako da zauzme mesto u poslaničkim klupama grubo su optužili Upravni sud zbog ove odluke, dok Vučić optužuje opoziciju da je kriva zbog toga što na izbore mogu da se ulažu „beskrajni i beskonačni prigovori“. Ne vredi trošiti reči da bi se pokazalo koliko je besmisleno da bilo koji predstavnik vladajuće koalicije, koja je sa 97% podrške u skupštini izglasala izborni zakon, optužuje nekog drugog za njegov sadržaj, a pogotovo da to čini predsednik države koji je taj zakon proglasio. Jednako je neprimereno što radi opozicija – kritikujući sudsku odluku samo na osnovu njenog efekta, umesto da to čini ukazujući na eventualnu različitu primenu propisa od strane suda u sličnim situacijama (ako je to slučaj).
Odlaganje završetka izbora ima i imaće neposredne finansijske efekte za partije. Dodatno, već sada je imalo za posledicu da transparentnost finansiranja kampanje za izbore 2022. bude manja nego u slučaju svih kampanja u prethodnih deset godina.
Kod samog ponavljanja izbora neposredno su sukobljeni interesi dve izborne liste. Formalno, od nekoliko stotina glasova iz Velikog Trnovca trenutno zavisi da li će u skupštinske klupe sesti Dragan Vulić, diplomirani ekonomista iz Kraljeva, kao 32. na listi SPS-JS ili diplomirani pravnik Šaip Kamberi, kao prvi sa liste KAD.
Kad je reč o novcu, od ishoda izbora neposredno zavisi da li će SPS-u ili Koaliciji Albanaca pripasti 2.378.077 dinara iz budžeta za finansiranje kampanje. Međutim, tu nije kraj. Iako je trenutno nepoznata destinacija samo ovih 20 hiljada evra, sve partije koje su učestvovale na aprilskim parlamentarnim izborima, umesto da su novac na koji imaju pravo dobile pre dva i po meseca, još uvek čekaju na raspodelu nespornih 592 miliona dinara, to jest blizu 4,7 miliona evra! Štaviše, ne čekaju samo partije, već i njihovi pružaoci usluga za kampanju. Takva situacija nesrazmerno više pogađa one liste koje su tek sada postale parlamentarne, ali još uvek nisu ostvarile pravo na budžetske dotacije po osnovu zastupljenosti u skupštini.
Još više od partijskih ugroženi su interesi građana – umesto da 30 dana nakon izbora saznaju iz kojih izvora su finansirane kampanje i na šta je potrošen novac (dakle, početkom maja), to će, u najboljem slučaju, saznati tek krajem jula. Ne samo da će izveštaji biti objavljeni kasnije nego što bi trebalo, već je odlaganje roka donelo i dodatno vreme da se ti izveštaji „uštimuju“ tako da ne ostane nikakav višak koji bi se vratio u budžet.
Situacija kada prelazak cenzusa zavisi od odluke veoma malog broja birača povećava rizik od kupovine glasova. To, naravno, nije dopušteno, i ne mora da znači da će bilo ko podmićivati birače u Velikom Trnovcu, ali je činjenica da je rizik da do toga dođe značajno veći na izolovanim nego na opštim izborima, jer za tako nešto postoje značajno veći interes i sredstva, uz jednak stepen nezainteresovanosti ključnih državnih organa da takve pojave spreče.
Pored ovih 20 hiljada evra za finansiranje kampanje, KAD će, ukoliko pređe cenzus moći da računa i na oko 46 hiljada za finansiranje svog redovnog rada svake godine, odnosno oko 185 hiljada evra za četiri godine. Drugim rečima raspodela nekih 200 hiljada evra zavisi od načina izbora i glasanja nešto više od 600 birača – hipotetički, partija ima interes da investira 330 evra po jednom potrebnom biraču za ostvarivanje cilja. Međutim, KAD nije jedina politička grupacija čiji je finansijski interes koncentrisan oko izborne odluke Velikotrnovčana. Kada je reč o SPS-JS, pored 20 hiljada evra neposredne koristi od očuvanja poslaničkog mandata, u opticaju je još oko 23 hiljade evra razlike u finansiranju u naredne četiri godine.
Da bi ostvarila povoljan rezultat za sebe, ova koalicija bi trebalo da uveri veoma mali deo birača da ne izađu na izbore ili da zaokruže bilo koga osim KAD. Na primer, na treće glasanje je izašlo ukupno 618 ljudi na tom biračkom mestu, od čega je KAD za pobedu bilo potrebno 610; na drugom glasanju ih je bilo 697, a na prvom svega 254.
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